据sciencedirect数据库消息，11月《食品控制》杂志（Food Control）刊登一项采用概率分布法评估HACCP体系内风险级别的研究。
本论文阐述了一种新的危害分析方法，该法运用β和三角形概率分布改善HACCP计划危害分析阶段。在微软Excel系统（电子制表程序）建立该模型。
文章对猪肉切割程序进行了案例分析。在50%概率分布区间内，包装阶段的生物危害风险最高（如食源性致病菌生长），其概率为5.5×10-1.包装阶段的物理危害风险概率最低（如包装破损导致的异物），其概率为1.4×10-1.该模型经进一步完善后，可增强HACCP在控制食品安全方面的效果。
部分原文报道如下：
Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points （HACCP）， internationally recognized as an effective way of controlling foodborne hazards, has been progressively applied for the benefit of the food industry. However, HACCP is a difficult principle to apply. Failure to perform hazard analysis could render the entire HACCP plan ineffective. This paper describes a new analytical method using simple beta and triangular probability distributions to improve the hazard analysis stage of the HACCP plan. Developed in Microsoft? Excel （a spreadsheet program）， the model calculates the risk level for the probability, i.e., the likelihood of occurrence of a specific hazard by using background information and data.
A pork-cutting procedure was included in a case study. At a 50% percentile value in probability distribution, the highest risk was a biological hazard （e.g., foodborne pathogens growth） in the packaging steps, at a probability of 5.5 × 10?1. The lowest risk was a physical hazard in the packaging steps （e.g., foreign materials introduced by packaging damage）， at a probability of 1.4 × 10?3. Despite certain shortcomings, this model, with further improvements, could be expected to increase the effectiveness of HACCP in controlling food safety.
原文链接：<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956713512004380>
日期：2012-12-14
