据外媒报道，近期《食品添加剂与污染物》杂志刊登一篇关于气候变化对食品生产系统中自然毒素形成影响的文章。文章指出食品和饲料安全将会受气候变化的影响，包括初级农产品和海产品中的天然毒素，但迄今为止尚缺乏定量评估。
本研究旨在评估气候变化对欧洲大陆西北部种植的谷物中霉菌毒素污染、赤潮爆发频率、北部海岸贝类中海洋生物毒素污染的影响。研究重点关注小麦中脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇污染、鳍藻属藻类富集、腹泻性贝类毒素污染之间的潜在关系。本研究充分参考了现有的资料和模型，采用的模型有：全球气候模型、区域性气候模型、农作物气候学模型、霉菌毒素预测模型、流体动力学模型和生态模型，模型通过将相关模型结论输入另一模型的方式而相互结合。
此外，通过对研究领域的国家数据进行统计学数据分析后，获得了鳍藻细胞数量、腹泻性贝类毒素贝类和农作物耕作频率间关联的信息。本论文内容包括研究摘要、结论和建议。本文以2031年至2050年气候变化预测为分析起点，研究这20年的气候变化信息。
结果显示，通常情况下气候变化促使小麦提前开花和收割，小麦污染脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇的风险提高，而鞭毛属藻类富集的爆发频率也随之增加。假设鳍藻属藻类与鞭毛属藻类的表现相似，则将来爆发鳍藻属藻类藻华的频率也会增加，但对含腹泻性贝类毒素贝类的污染影响则不确定。气候变化对毒素污染存在间接影响，例如，随着气候变化，北欧小麦和玉米的收获频率预计会增加，同时谷物污染脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇的风险提高。
风险管理人员应该考虑气候变化对食品安全危害造成的整体影响，而非仅限于中值或平均值。此外，该研究建议以后应该密切监控霉菌毒素和海洋生物毒素的含量，特别是利于微生物产生毒素的气候变化。而且，在数据收集、数据库实用性和接入性方面需持续重点关注。欧洲迫切需要开展术语的统一和数据采集工作。
部分原文报道如下：
Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins.
The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal cropping. In this paper, a summary of the study is presented, and overall conclusions and recommendations are given.
原文链接：<http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19440049.2012.714080>
日期：2012-11-16
